Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Left turn into Soft on "withdrawl of suport" in context of Nuclear Deal

With reports of Left all set to withdraw support from the government, the National Security Advisor -- MK Narayanan -- is all set to brief Samajwadi Party leaders on the Indo-US nuke deal issue in a desperate bid to win support ahead of Left's pullout to save the government.
The National Security Advisor (NSA) on Wednesday (July 2, 2008) met with SP General Secretary -- Amar Singh -- to explain the technicalities of the deal. The meeting with Amar Singh follows his much talked about close door meeting with UPA pointsperson -- the Union External Affairs Minister -- Pranab Mukherjee.
After the meeting with the NSA -- Amar Singh -- said:"As Amar Singh quoted, "In today's times, more than any other threat, the most fatalistic threat is the slowly spreading poison of communalism. We have always fought against communalism."
Click here to listen to Amar SinghThis is part of the UPA government's efforts to get the required numbers in Parliament to see the deal through in the eventuality of the Left voting against it. SP sources have indicated that the party will vote for the deal in the event of a floor test but will continue to oppose it outside the Parliament.
In return, the Congress and the Samajwadi Party (SP) will forge a long term political alliance in Uttar Pradesh.
Today's hectic political parley's came after CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat issued his most stern warning to the government on Tuesday (July 1) stating that if the Prime Minister goes to the G8 Summit, the Left will withdraw support.
Prakash Karat had stated yesterday: "The understanding was conveyed in the statement issued on November 16 by the UPA-Left committeee on the nuclear deal. They've gone back on that. I don't think, any coalition can work, if the concerned parties do not stand by their commitment."
Click here to listen to Prakash KaratDivided over deadline?
There seems to be a divide within the Left over the issue of when to withdraw support from the UPA government over the Indo-US nuke deal, especially with the CPI General Secretary -- A B Bardhan -- contradicting his colleague -- Prakash Karat -- and issuing a contradictory statement on Wednesday (July 2).
On Tuesday (July 1), the CPI(M) Party General Secretary -- Prakash Karat -- had linked withdrawal of support from the UPA government to PM's G-8 visit, while on Wednesday (July 2), the CPI leader -- A B Bardhan -- steered clear of commenting whether the Left will withdraw support from the UPA government categorically reiterating that the decision will be taken on Friday (July 4), when the Left parties will meet in the capital.
According to Bardhan: "G8 has nothing to do with the Nuke Deal. There is a view that it may not be proper to withdraw support when the Prime Minister is not in the country. The decision to withdraw support from the UPA on Friday (July 4) is unlikely and it may be delayed." Meanwhile, the RLD leader -- Ajit Singh -- also hinted at supporting the Indo-US nuclear deal. Ajit Singh has called a meeting of party MPs and MLAs on July 7 to take a final decision. Singh says, he met the Congress President Sonia Gandhi on June 26 and has discussed the issue with her.
'We won't seek no confidence motion' Meanwhile in a seemingly sofetning of stand, BJP Chief -- Rajnath Singh -- has said that the BJP won't initiate or bring a no-confidence motion against the UPA government, if the Left pulls out over the Indo-US nuclear deal.Rajnath Singh also mentioned that while the BJP wasn't against the US but it was certainly against the nuclear deal.Why the pullout is likely on FridayThe Left has reached a point of no return on the Nuke-deal after the Prime Minister has signalled his intention of going to G8. IAEA and the Left parties are not too keen to back down if the PM goes to attend the G8.In the present circumstances, the likely scenario is that Left may announce a pullout on Friday (July 4). On the other hand, the SP may announce its support to the Congress or the Congress may also acquire backing of the lesser parties if votes are needed.
Present Party positionsMulayam Singh (SP)Inching closer to Congress. Meeting NSA today (July 2), Working out support formula with UNPA partners.Prakash Karat (CPM)Sets G8 deadline for withdrawl of the N-deal. The final decision is awaited on Friday (July 4).CongressWorking out support formula with SP, also dealing with the smaller parties to extend support.UPA allies (Lalu Prasad, Sharad Pawar)Ready to part ways with the Left, the UPA allies also Want to avoid early elections at all costs.Where are the numbers?Here's a look at the numbers the Manmohan Singh government needs to survive in the event of a no-trust vote.The UPA has 226 members in the Lok Sabha as of now. With the backing of the Samajwadi Party, the UPA strength goes up to 265, just seven votes short of the magic figure. But the UPA could be bailed out in such a situation if the RLD, NC, JDS and TRS pitches in successively.The Number GameTarget: 272 (Majority mark)UPA - 226If SP supports UPA, then the mark would rise to 265Shortcoming in the total number of votes - 7Possible 'Friends in need' with their vote marksRLD - 3NC - 2JD(S) - 3TRS - 3Independents - 5
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